Chapter 6 Conclusions

Once concluded the analysis, and seen the results obtained, it is considered appropriate to expose some final considerations as final conclusions.

Firstly, it is important to mention that, before starting with the project one of the first anticipated challenges was to find an open-source from which would be extracted the schedule adjustments. And if spotted, if it would be enough completed to fulfill the objectives of the project. In front of the results obtained, it can be stated that the source found and the resulting database generated have accomplished most of the objectives initially set.

As explained in the project, most of the adjustments collected respond to governments' measures or to the drops in demand. These actions or scenarios are directly related to the number of cases or to the spreading of the virus. Thus, it has been seen almost a direct relationship between the schedules' adjustments and the pandemic evolution, accomplishing one of the project's main objectives.
However, it is important to highlight the proven evidence that the database is uncompleted. Some of the airlines listed have shown, clearly, a lack of accounted modifications. Despite this, in total there have been gathered more than 15 K adjustments from more than 200 different airlines. Almost in every situation, the lack of information from one airline has been countered with the adjustments from another airline. This has not only allowed visualizing the airlines' response to most of the main governments' measures, but it has made possible the global analysis.

It has been also possible to analyze the evolution of the pandemic through the ranking of airlines canceling more frequencies. This has lead to the conclusion that it does exit a temporal relationship between the most affected region and the airlines introducing more cancelations. However, if taken the last day of the study and summing up all the adjustments, it results that the region with more confirmed cases does not correspon to the region where more frequencies have been canceled:

Number of cases per region *vs* number of canceled frequencies.

Figure 6.1: Number of cases per region vs number of canceled frequencies.

The regions most hit by COVID-19 have been North America followed by Southern Europe, Western Europe and Eastern Asia. Meanwhile, the regions showing more frequencies cancelations are: Western Europe, Eastern Asia, Southeastern Asia and Western Asia.

It was expected that the most developed regions would list the majority of the cancelations. The results obtained have followed this hypothesis. However, some regions showcase a considerably low value. A clear example are North America and Southern Europe. This is explained by the period analyzed and the elaboration of the database.
For North America, it is predicted that some adjustments have not been collected. In addition, some of the major cuts by American airlines were applied out of the period studied. This has generated the low value of cancellations that may not explain the real situation of the region. Regarding Southern Europe, there is evidence that the airlines of the region almost grounded their entire fleet. However, this is not showcased in the graphic, being clear that some adjustments are missing.

The evolution of the canceled frequencies per airline has resulted very useful to see how the epicenter of the pandemic changed from China to Europe, but not to visualize the rise of the United States. This study then is not appropriate to extract conclusions on what region has seen more frequencies canceled. In order to do so, it is highly recommended to extend the period or/and change the data source.

Regarding the airlines' strategy, and from an overall point of view, it has been possible to see the airlines' response to most of the government measures listed in the study. It has been very interesting to notice that most of the cancellations arrived the day the measures came into effect. In consequence as an initial assessment, it can be stated airlines have flown until it has been forbidden or until it has been unprofitable.
Apart from that, there have to be reminded the cancelations provoked by the successive drops in demand. Since demand is in part a forecast study, it is expected that the resulting cancelations were introduced in advance. However, the instability and uncertainty of the period, added to the rapid spreading of the virus and the constant aggregation of travel bans have made the anticipation really complicated, even sometimes not possible. This has been represented by the curves of the average anticipation and the duration of the adjustments, which have not shown any specific pattern.

Defining the strategy of a specific airline has been left aside to be fulfilled either in a possible continuity of the study or in a new project. The database generated does not have enough information to elaborate the study and it may lead to false conclusions.

What it is clear is COVID-19 has led to a totally unprecedented situation in the air travel industry. This project has visualized this scenario by analyzing the frequencies canceled, but another way to approach it is by studying the flights flown. This is showcased in the following video from South China Morning Post :

Tracking the massive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the world’s airline industry in early 2020. Source: South China Morning Post

Figure 6.2: Tracking the massive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the world’s airline industry in early 2020. Source: South China Morning Post

The evolution of the pandemic has left devastating images for the sector. As seen in the video, with the spreading of the virus fewer planes have taken off. The COVID-19 has promoted all destinations worldwide to introduce travel restrictions. As of April 28, the UNWTO webpage states, and quoting verbatim, "of 217 destinations worldwide:

  • 45% have totally or partially closed their borders for tourists - “Passengers are not allowed to enter”.

  • 30% have suspended totally or partially international flights - “all flights are suspended”.

  • 18% are banning the entry for passengers from specific countries of origin or passengers who have transited through specific destinations.

  • 7% are applying different measures, such as quarantine or self-isolation for 14 days and visa measures." (Organization 2020)

In view of the global dimension, it has been considered appropriate to represent the relationship between the confirmed cases and the global travel restrictions for the period studied. In the Figures below are represented:

  • On the left side, the spreading of the virus. Each country is colored depending on the number of confirmed cases.
  • On the right side, the countries' announcement of global travel restrictions. The territories coloured in red have introduced the total closure of their borders (Passengers are not allowed to enter) or the suspension of all international flights (All flights are suspended).
Evolution of the countries that have imposed a global travel ban in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 6.3: Evolution of the countries that have imposed a global travel ban in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Spreading of the coronavirus.

Figure 6.4: Spreading of the coronavirus.

The UNWTO states that COVID-19 has left the most severe restriction on international travel in history. Even though, despite the huge impact seen, the major uncertainty is not knowing when this is going to end. As of June 26, some countries have lifted their travel restrictions, but the new outbreaks in focused areas are threatening and even provoking new lockdowns of entire cities. It is very difficult to forecast when air travel will recover, however and as explained, most experts predict that the levels of 2019 will not be reached, at least, in three years.

If there is something beyond doubt is the uncertainty now surrounding the sector will continue for the foreseeable future. Everything depends on how fast the pandemic can be contained, how fast the governments around the globe will open their airspace, and how the economy evolves. However, as the political activist George Bernard, said:

“Both optimists and pessimists contribute to our society. The optimist invents the airplane and the pessimist the parachute.”

Aviation will prove once again its strength and cyclicality, sooner or later uncertainties will become certainties and the air will be clear. We will fly again.

To conclude, this project has given the practical opportunity to not only to approach to the Air Transport industry, but to study the COVID-19 repercussions. It has been also very interesting to read about experts' opinions, strike up conversations with fellow professionals or discuss with the tutors the results obtained.
In the end, this study has resulted to be a very rewarding experience, where the challenges have turned into self-improvement objectives.